intro and questions

secretcode
rid

Calibration Quiz

 For each statement below, please say:

i) Whether you think it is true or false

ii) How confident you are that your answer is correct, on a scale of 50% (Not at all confident) to 100% (Completely confident)

Calibration quizzes are intended to gauge individuals' attitudes and beliefs and their degree of confidence in those attitudes and beliefs. They are not intended to be tests of knowledge: good calibration means knowing both what we know and don't know. This quiz is just an example of how confidence in beliefs surrounding nuclear weapons policy might be captured; it does not guarantee well-calibrated decision-making going forward but may help to reveal suboptimal calibration on nuclear issues. Please note that the answers to questions in this quiz are correct as of 2023.
France is a recognised nuclear weapons state.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
Belgium hosts nuclear weapons.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
India has signed the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
Over 10% of the annual UK defence budget is spent on maintaining its four nuclear submarines.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
There are more than 15,000 active nuclear warheads in the world today.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
Only one country has given up its strategically independent nuclear arsenal.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
The US helped remove nuclear weapons from Romania at the end of the Cold War.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
China is the only NPT-recognised nuclear power to have a no first use policy.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
The number of nuclear warheads in the world today is less than half its Cold War peak.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
In the United States, the US President has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
The UK has more active nuclear warheads than either India or Pakistan.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)
The United States has more than 10 times as many active nuclear warheads as China.
True
False

How confident are you that your above answer is correct?

Not at all confident (50%)
Completely confident (100%)